Canada’s Unifor National president, Lana Payne, tells a 70-year-old story that’s as poignant today as it was when it allegedly happened sometime in the 1950s.
As the story goes, former UAW Presi-dent Walter Reuther and a member of Ford Motor Co. management were touring a U.S. plant together. At some point during the walkabout, the Ford manager — and some have suggested it was Henry Ford II — gestured to new automated machinery building the vehicles on the shop floor.
“Walter,” he said. “How are you going to get these robots to pay union dues?”
Reuther quickly replied: “How are you going to get them to buy your cars?”
It’s a question just as relevant today as it was then.
While early automation threatened the workforce then, it’s humanoid robots on the march today. The stakes are high for more than 125,000 people directly employed in Canada’s auto industry, and beyond, and that concerns Payne as well as labor expert Larry Savage.
According to analysts at Gartner and Warburg Research, at least one automaker will achieve 100 percent assembly automation by 2030.
A U.S. or Chinese automaker will likely be the first to create a 100 per-cent assembly automation line “to-ward the end of this decade,” as several players in those markets “are already setting up disruptive manufacturing processes and reveal more of a focus on humanoid robots,” Pedro Pacheco, Gartner vice president of research, told Automotive News Europe.
Meanwhile, Warburg Research analyst Fabio Hölscher said it is “not unrealistic” to expect to see the first fully “dark” automotive factory — where everything is done by robots — in China by 2030.
So, it begs the question: If robots do all the work, who makes the money and ultimately, who is left to buy the vehicles?
A Boston Dynamics Atlas robot sorts parts for manufacturing. Hyundai plans to deploy Atlas robots in U.S. auto assembly in 2028. According to some analysts, at least one automaker will achieve 100 percent assembly automation by 2030.
“The world has changed a lot since the 1950s, but we still need jobs to be able to buy cars, and that’s the reality of it,” said Payne, “And I think that this is the kind of paradox that underpins any kind of discussion around automation.” And make no mistake, the robots are coming.
AUTOMAKERS AND AUTOMATION
At CES in January, Hyundai Motor Group announced a major push into robotics and artificial intelligence. It said it plans to deploy humanoid robots at its manufacturing complex in Georgia, starting in 2028. The Atlas robot is built by Hyundai’s Boston Dynamics. The automaker also has robotics partnerships with Nvidia and Google DeepMind.
According to KB Securities analyst Kang Seongjin, Hyundai is the only company that can rival Tesla in the physical AI market. Hyundai’s robotics business will offer a turning point in increasing productivity, Seong in said.
Meanwhile, Mercedes has launched a pilot project with humanoid robots that it says could begin working along-side assembly line workers by 2030.
And when asked by Automotive News Europe whether Autoliv, which specializes in seat belts, airbags and steering wheels, was working toward a dark fac-tory, CEO Mikael Bratt didn’t rule it out.
“The key measurement is to make sure we have the most cost-effective solution, therefore a lights-out plant is not a goal in itself,” he said. “We have some processes that definitely are possible to eventually do that, but I have no announcement now that we will have the first lights-out plant now or in the near term, but the focus is to drive the efficiency and then we see if that results in a lights-out plant.”
RISK TO INDUSTRY
Ryan Robinson, an automotive re-search lead at Deloitte, said humanoid robots and physical AI pose a risk to the auto industry.
“From a manufacturing jobs perspective, I would be … concerned about the longer-term macro issue of increased investment in robotics and physical AI in the manufacturing space,” he said. “I think that is the larger threat to manufacturing jobs, not just in Canada, but auto manufacturing jobs everywhere.”
Savage, a professor of labor studies at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ontario, says governments might need to step in to help protect jobs that are under the threat of automation. And that, he said, is good for automakers.
“Robots are really designed to slash costs and boost profits. But eliminating wages means you’re also eliminating the main source of mass demand for vehicles,” he said.
He said part of the idea behind Henry Ford’s $5 workday, which he implemented in 1914, was to ensure his workers had the means to buy new cars — and other goods and services, benefiting the economy as a whole.
“The Fordist compromise was pre-mised on the idea that increased productivity would be partially shared with workers through higher wages, which in turn supported mass consumption,” Savage said. “When vehicles are assembled entirely by robots, that model gets thrown out the window. Jobs disappear, profits concentrate at the top and demand dries up.”
Payne isn’t so sure government legislation is needed. She said a compromise can be bargained during contract talks.
Technology has to be managed by people and workers to ensure that we’re actually getting maximum benefits. Payne said that the union, as a stakeholder, “bargains a lot around these issues.”
For example, she said the union has negotiated tech change committees in collective agreements.
“You have to be part of any change in technology in a workplace, and being part of that discussion means you can mitigate some of the risks to workers,” she said. “There’s a lot that can be done when this work is being openly discussed from a negotiating point of view. It’s important that the union is there and is part of it.”
GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO AI
Automotive News was told there are some programs in place to assist workers affected by AI. But, neither Innovation Science and Economic Development nor Solomon’s office answered direct questions about humanoid robots or Savage’s idea of a “robot tax.”
The Canadian government has also committed $570 million over three years for increased employment assistance and upskilling through labor market agreements. Over 850 automotive sector workers, mostly in Ontario, are already receiving services, it said.
And, the government is actively consulting with provinces and territories, national indigenous organizations, and key privacy, human rights, disability and inclusion stakeholders on the new AI Strategy, launching in early 2026.
Payne, who has been dealing with technological change for years, is skeptical that robots will displace all auto workers.
“I find it really hard to believe for lots of reasons,” she said. “We have been dealing with this idea of job displacement through automation for as long as we’ve had an auto industry and an auto assembly line itself.”
Source: Automotive News